The Bill Comes Due (Continued)

Cost of Living · Inflation · Trade · Taxes · economy

What HR1, Trump’s tariffs, and the collapsing dollar have created isn’t just inflation. It’s a quiet reshuffling of who sacrifices and who profits. For the bottom 75%, it’s relentless. For the top 2%, it’s optional. For people like Lyle, it’s designed.

Back in Visalia, Maggie had to take out a payday loan to register the car.

“I hate doing that,” she says. “It’s like borrowing shame.”

It’s a 2007 Toyota. The window on the driver’s side won’t roll up anymore. She taped it shut with a plastic sheet.

Her daughter still drinks water.

Bibliography

1. Budget Lab at Yale University. Where We Stand: Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All US Tariffs Enacted 2025 Through April. Yale Budget Lab, 2025. https://budgetlab.yale.edu

2. Investopedia. “Tariffs Will Cost Typical Household USD $3,800 a Year, Analysis Says.” Investopedia, 2025. https://www.investopedia.com/tariffs-will-cost-typical-household-usd3-800-a-year-analysis-says-11708786

3. Al Jazeera. “Why Is the US Dollar Falling by Record Levels in 2025?” Al Jazeera, July 1, 2025. https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/7/1/why-is-the-us-dollar-falling-by-record-levels-in-2025

4. The Eagle 106.9. “Average Household Now Spends $5,000 a Year on Gasoline.” The Eagle 106.9, 2023. https://www.theeagle1069.com/average-household-now-spends-5000-a-year-on-gasoline

5. Fool.com. “How Much Do Americans Spend on Gas Each Year?” The Motley Fool, 2023. https://www.fool.com/money/research/gas-prices

6. Axios. “Trump’s Tariffs Are Hitting Low-Income Americans Hardest.” Axios, April 2, 2025. https://www.axios.com/2025/04/02/trump-tariffs-low-income

7. U.S. Congressional Budget Office. Estimate of Budgetary Effects of H.R.1 (Tax Cuts and Jobs Simplification Act of 2025). CBO, 2025.

8. Substack. Jared Bernstein. “Repairing the Economic Damage of Trump’s Budget and Trade Policy.” On the Economy, July 2025. https://substack.com/redirect/ad559392-0891-42ea-a1ce-2b3a0d134d71

9. Tax Foundation. “Summary Analysis of H.R. 1: Distributional and Revenue Effects.” Tax Foundation, 2025.

10. Goldman Sachs Research (via Elsie Peng et al.). Consumer Pass-Through and Tariff Effects in 2025: Early Evidence and Inflation Risks. Internal Briefing, July 2025.

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