The Fed Backstory (Continued)

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Macroeconomics · Inflation · Markets · Political Power · economy

7. Adrian, Tobias, Richard K. Crump, and Emanuel Moench. “ACM Term Premium Estimates.” Federal Reserve Bank of New York (data &amp methodology note, 2013–present). The standard U.S. measure for decomposing yields into expectations vs. term premia used to gauge credibility shocks.

8. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. “The Treasury Market Flash Event of February 25, 2021.” FEDS Notes, 2021. Official analysis of how a weak auction and thin liquidity can rapidly amplify yield moves.

9. Reuters. “Turkish Lira Nosedives After Erdoğan Backs Rate Cuts as Prices Surge.” November 23, 2021. Contemporaneous reporting of a ~15% one-day lira plunge tied to political pressure on monetary policy.

10. Reuters. “Turkey’s Erdoğan Sacks Central Bank Governor Naci Ağbal; Lira Tumbles.” March 22, 2021. Day-of record of leadership dismissal and immediate currency reaction undercutting policy credibility.

11. European Commission. “Commission Launches Accelerated Infringement Proceedings Against Hungary Concerning the Independence of Its Central Bank.” Press release, January 2012. Primary institutional statement that legal changes threatened central-bank autonomy.

12. Reuters. “Hungary Deputy Central Bank Governor Júlia Király Resigns in Protest.” April 8, 2013. On-the-record resignation citing governance changes and “long-term damage,” illustrating institutional costs of politicization.

13. Reuters. “Argentina Fires Central Bank Chief Martín Redrado in Dispute Over Using Reserves to Pay Debt.” January 2010. Documentation of executive–bank conflict and the legal turmoil that followed.

14. Reuters. “Venezuela’s Central Bank Reports 130,060% Inflation for 2018 After Data Blackout.” May 28, 2019. Official figures confirming hyperinflation after years of monetary financing and diminished transparency.

15. International Monetary Fund. Zimbabwe: 2009 Article IV Consultation—Staff Report (Including an Assessment of Quasi-Fiscal Operations). IMF Country Report No. 09/139, 2009. Authoritative diagnosis linking quasi-fiscal financing by the central bank to hyperinflation.

16. Banco Central do Brasil. Lei Complementar nº 179, de 24 de fevereiro de 2021 (Autonomia do Banco Central do Brasil). Brasília: BCB, 2021. Statutory text establishing formal operational autonomy and staggered terms as an institutional firewall against political pressure.

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