Her research found that no regime has survived a sustained, nonviolent protest campaign that mobilized at least 3.5 percent of the population. That threshold, in today’s United States, is 11.9 million people. The No Kings protest reached seven million — historically enormous, but not decisive. What matters now is what comes next.
Consolidation looks like this — not tanks or tribunals, but memos, reclassifications, and a slow‑motion transfer of power from the electorate to the executive. It begins with two documents.
On January 20, 2025, the President issued two orders: one asserting full presidential control over independent regulatory agencies³; the other reviving and expanding Schedule F⁴. The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) followed with implementation guidance. The newly styled Department of Government Efficiency, built from the U.S. Digital Service’s footprint, now operates from inside every major agency.⁵
“This is not just about the next election,” said a former OMB official who requested anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. “It’s about whether elections will still matter as a check.”⁵
Inside OPM, the daily scramble to comply with “data calls” — the same ones the White House now tracks — had the feel of a purge list in the making.¹⁰ One analyst, who had served under four administrations, said: “It’s not just who gets fired — it’s who gets scared into staying silent.”
The implications are profound. If the Supreme Court, in Trump v. Slaughter, rules on December 8 that presidents may fire independent commissioners at will, then enforcement of antitrust law, banking regulations, labor protections — even monetary policy — becomes politicized overnight⁶. Combined with Schedule F reclassification, this would create a vertically aligned executive with direct command over both the personnel and enforcement arms of the state.
Legal brakes exist — but time is running out. Courts have temporarily halted mass firings of civil servants⁷ and blocked some retaliatory actions against states and the press⁸. But those injunctions are temporary, and litigation is slow. In the interim, agencies continue submitting rules for centralized White House review⁹. Governors report new surveillance demands tied to federal grants¹¹. The shape of American federalism is shifting underfoot.
“You don’t need tanks in the streets if you control the grants, the enforcement, and the information flow,” said Illinois Attorney General Kwame Raoul.¹¹
The Democratic Firewall
Protect Independent Agencies
Courts must uphold Humphrey’s Executor (1935 case limiting presidential removal) and block EO 14215’s full implementation. If the presidency gains at‑will firing power over commissioners at the FTC, SEC, FEC, or Fed, regulatory independence collapses. Lawsuits from the DNC, consumer groups, and agency insiders are already in motion⁶. A ruling in favor of limits would preserve a key check — independent rulemaking and enforcement.
Freeze Schedule F
The January 20 order must be enjoined or delayed long enough to prevent mass reclassifications. The union lawsuits in federal court⁷ offer one path; another is legislative delay through funding bills.