Most countries don’t want that in their backyard. China decided it could live with the mess—and turned it into leverage.
“We need these materials for a green future,” said Michael Silver, CEO of American Elements.
“But extracting them can wreck the environment we’re trying to save.”
That’s the trap: the environmentalist’s Catch-22.
The Trump administration has started to respond. In April 2025, Trump called for a strategic reserve of critical minerals like nickel and cobalt. His Interior Secretary, Doug Burgum, blamed the “war on mining” for our current dependence and promised streamlined permits and access to federal land.
Fine. But talk is cheap. Mines aren’t. And building the infrastructure to refine rare earths in the U.S. won’t happen overnight.
“It’ll take five to ten years,” warned Luisa Moreno of Defense Metals. “And serious investment.”
Meanwhile, other nations are done waiting. Australia’s Resources Minister Madeleine King recently said: “These minerals are in high demand. We’d like a partnership with the U.S.—but if not, we’ll work with others.”
Brazil has massive reserves. So does India. Even Greenland. But few have the facilities—or the political will—to match China’s output. In 2024, Brazil, the second-largest reserve holder, mined just 20 tons. Myanmar, with barely any known reserves, produced more.
In this game, it’s not about who has the metal. It’s about who’s willing to dig.
But there’s another race happening—one for escape velocity.
At Cambridge, scientists figured out how to manufacture tetrataenite, a powerful magnetic alloy previously found only in meteorites. Toshiba has cut neodymium use in half. In the U.S., AI-designed magnets without rare earths were prototyped in just three months. Battery companies are pivoting to sodium-ion and LFP tech that skips rare earths—and cobalt—entirely.
Even the motors are evolving. Valeo has rolled out a magnet-free motor that actually performs better on highways. And recyclers are starting to claw rare earths back from old phones, wind turbines, and industrial junk—what used to be e-waste is now a mine.
“There’s been an urgent search for alternatives,” one analyst said. “And we’re finally seeing them.”
But it’s not enough. The International Energy Agency expects demand to jump 44% by 2030 and double by 2040. Substitutes will help, but they won’t close the gap. For now, we still need the metals—and we still need China.
So here we are. The world runs on quiet, critical elements. And whoever controls them controls more than just supply chains. They control futures.
The next geopolitical chokehold won’t come from oil rigs or gas pipelines. It’ll come from oxides—processed in secrecy, leveraged with precision.
And in that fight, the rarest element won’t be neodymium. It’ll be independence.