The bottom line: this is a huge, risky economic experiment. Tariffs of this magnitude haven’t been seen since the 1930s — and that didn’t end well. Back then, the Smoot-Hawley tariffs triggered a global trade collapse. Today’s world is even more interconnected, so the potential damage could be worse.
If you’re a median-income family, you’re facing higher prices on nearly everything and growing uncertainty about your job. If you’re in another country that exports to the U.S., you may lose your livelihood. If you’re a policymaker, you’re watching this with a mix of hope and dread.
We’ll know in the next 6–12 months if this gamble pays off or becomes a case study in how not to run trade policy. Until then, brace yourself: it’s going to be a bumpy ride.
Bibliography
1. Mason, Jeff, David Ljunggren, and Andy Sullivan. “Trump’s Tariffs Spur Trade War Threats, Fears of Pricier iPhones.” Reuters, April 3, 2025 .
2. Rugaber, Christopher. “Trump’s Tariff Push Is a Race against Time, and Potential Voter Backlash.” Associated Press (via WRAL.com), April 3, 2025 .
3. Oliver, Shane. “Liberation (or Rather Retro) Day – Some Initial Thoughts.” Livewire Markets, April 3, 2025 .
4. Fettig, David. “What Washing Machines Can Teach Us about the Cost of Tariffs.” UChicago News, April 22, 2019 .
5. Amiti, Mary, Stephen J. Redding, and David E. Weinstein. “New China Tariffs Increase Costs to U.S. Households.” Liberty Street Economics (Federal Reserve Bank of New York blog), May 23, 2019 .
6. CNN transcript of Trump speech from January 7, 2019