and the ACA, they still pour billions into the programs. The same goes for unemployment insurance—$1.8 billion paid in, no eligibility to file.
And yet, the burden narrative persists. The Federation for American Immigration Reform (FAIR), a conservative think tank, pegs the annual net cost of undocumented immigration at $150.7 billion. But FAIR’s own model includes U.S.-born children and inflated population estimates. Adjust those assumptions, and the figure drops to as low as $15 billion—a rounding error in a $7 trillion budget.
Meanwhile, the Congressional Budget Office projects that the 2021–2026 immigration surge—legal and undocumented—will add $8.9 trillion to GDP over the next decade. That’s not ideological wishcasting. That’s from the government’s own economic forecasting arm.
“Trump’s plan to deport undocumented immigrants would deal a fatal blow to the U.S. economy.” — Fanny Lauby, Political Scientist
Still, critics fixate on schools and emergency rooms. And it’s true—those costs are real. States and cities are on the hook for education, housing, and basic services. But they’re not operating in a vacuum. In 2022, undocumented households contributed more than $10 billion in property taxes—either directly or through rent. That’s what funds local schools. That’s what pays for buses and lunchrooms and ESL teachers.
New York City spent $800 million educating 21,000 new migrant children in the 2023–24 school year. But immigrant taxes covered that twice over.
Even in law enforcement, the math turns on its head. While local jails incur costs detaining immigrants for ICE, those same communities often face lower crime rates. A University of Illinois study found that 70% of undocumented immigrants are less likely to report crimes for fear of deportation, which distorts the public safety narrative entirely.
“Undocumented residents have a positive economic impact, contributing significantly to the economy.” — José Iván Rodríguez-Sánchez, Rice University
The labor market story is harder to spin. Immigrants—documented and not—make up 5% of the workforce. That’s not anecdotal. That’s agricultural output, drywall, elder care. Deport them, and you don’t just lose workers—you lose buyers. In 2022, undocumented households earned about $330 billion and spent over $230 billion. That demand props up housing, food service, and local retail. Pull it out, and you deflate the economy.
Gerald Jaynes of Yale sees legalization as a fiscal multiplier. “There would actually be a gain from immigration reform if there is a clear path to citizenship,” he said, noting that normalization lifts wages, boosts tax compliance, and cuts enforcement costs.
“We keep asking what immigrants cost. The better question is: what would it cost not to have them?”
Immigrants also start businesses. Over 823,000 undocumented people ran their own companies in 2019. These aren’t hypothetical numbers. They’re local restaurants, drywall crews, and child-care services—economic nodes that generate jobs and fill market gaps.
The public is told to picture a drain. What they’re rarely shown is a dividend. A stabilizing force in an aging population. A net-positive line item in Social Security’s balance sheet. A long-term demographic boost that prevents the U.S. from going full Japan.
Of course, there are frictions—especially at the state level. Costs hit locally. Revenues flow up. That tension won’t vanish with one policy reform. But the data keeps pointing in the same direction.