For Ankara, the most advantageous outcome is therefore not chaos but calibrated instability: a regional environment in which rivals are weakened, Turkey’s strategic value increases, and the costs of conflict remain manageable.
Late in the afternoon the courthouse doors opened again. Lawyers emerged to speak with reporters while police moved barricades along the street. The hearing had lasted most of the day.
Across the region, meanwhile, diplomats were still trying to contain a widening war.
Those two scenes — a political trial in Istanbul and a conflict spreading across the Middle East — might appear unrelated at first glance. In reality they are linked by the same geopolitical mechanism.
Wars do not simply redraw borders or destroy infrastructure. They also redistribute leverage. When instability spreads across multiple regions simultaneously, the countries positioned between those regions gain strategic weight.
Turkey has occupied that crossroads for centuries.
What the Iran war has done is remind the rest of the world that the gatekeeper often becomes most powerful when everyone else is looking somewhere else.
Bibliography
1. European Council. EU-Turkey Statement on Migration. March 18, 2016. Agreement establishing financial assistance and cooperation to manage refugee flows from Turkey to the European Union.
2. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Trends in International Arms Transfers 2025. Data identifying Turkey as one of the fastest-growing global arms exporters.
3. Human Rights Watch. “Türkiye: Leading Opponent of Erdoğan on Trial.” March 2026. Analysis of the prosecution of Istanbul politician Ekrem İmamoğlu and its implications for democratic governance.